In response to the potential of Roger Clemens facing perjury charges, Rusty Hardin, Clemens's attorney, stated, "These matters are now going to be decided in court and by the ultimate lie detector -- a jury. I am comfortable that when a jury hears this case ... they will conclude that Roger did not use steroids or growth hormone and he is telling the truth and that McNamee's allegations are totally false." (See the Boston Globe story here.) So, let's recap...Clemens may have lied to a House committee. He may be brought up on perjury charges that carry the potential of jail time. The trial will turn on whether, beyond a reasonable doubt, Clemens knowingly mislead investigator and the House Committee while under oath. And, yet, Clemens's attorney expects to get a verdict on whether Clemens used performance enhancing drugs. Sure, I suppose the jury will simply explain to the judge that they decided to ignore their instructions, the relevant charges against Clemens, and the burden of proof. Instead, they will render a decision that says that Roger Clemens never ever used performance enhancing drugs. To steal a line from A Few Good Men, perhaps Mr. Hardin was sick the day they taught law at law school.
I understand that Hardin is waging a two-front battle: a public relations campaign and a legal dispute. But, perhaps Mr. Hardin has spent too much time around his client and developed Clemensitis (the inability of the mind to ground claims in reality and the belief that no one will notice). Adopting Clemensitis as a legal strategy will not going to do much for your client. It is time for Team Clemens to drop the hyperbole and begin to take seriously what is at stake. Clemens's reputation is already in the tank. His liberty may follow. Clemens should do himself a favor and hire someone who is less concerned with the public relations campaign and more about keeping their client out of jail.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Monday, February 25, 2008
Lies, Damn lies, Clemens, and Jail Time?
The New York Times is reporting that the House Committee on Oversight and Governmental Reform asked the Department of Justice to begin a criminal investigation into whether Roger Clemens committed perjury when he testified before it earlier this month. As noted here (and everywhere else), Clemens lied in his testimony and now it appears that Congress may hold him accountable. Clemens's arrogance may finally cost him but an equally interesting question will be whether it costs him part of his baseball legacy. The New York Times hosted a "Who's The Greatest Pitcher of All Time" forum and it was amazing to see how little Clemens's name surfaced. In fact, when it did surface, "untenable" was also in the sentence. Just a few years ago, Clemens was widely considered the best right handed pitcher of the contemporary era (although some people inevitably pointed to Pedro's run from 1997-2002 as evidence of his superseding brilliance). Now, he is a pariah. Someday, when I tell my children about the "great pitchers" I saw pitch (back in the day), I will mention Pedro, Greg Maddux, Mariano Rivera, and, maybe even Jonathan Papelbon and Josh Beckett but I doubt I'll talk much of Clemens despite seeing him pitch in Boston and New York. I'll save Clemens for cautionary stories about the cost of lying.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
McCain, the Social Right, and the Problem of Judges
Carl Hulse has a fascinating article in Monday's New York Times. The article posits that McCain's role in avoiding the so-called nuclear option (i.e. destroying the filibuster to ensure nominations to the federal bench would get a confirmation vote) is now hurting his support among social conservatives. The article is worth the read but I have a few additional thoughts...
1. If the article is correct, then the social right seems to have abandoned hope of achieving their objects through traditional political venues. I, and many others, have long argued that the social right's agenda has been "deferred" to the courts. The politics of the social right have been transformed into a politics of conservative jurisprudence, which leaves the economic wing free to focus the Republican Party's energy on its agenda--be it deregulation, terrorism, or tort reform. Under this paradigm, the social right has been marginalized but, seemingly, they have not realized the degree to which they've been marginalized (although the strength of Huckabee's campaign may speak to a growing consciousness). However, they may have been willing to play along so long as nominees to the Supreme Court looked more like Samuel Alito and less like Harriet Myers. McCain, already suspected by the social right of not being particularly orthodox, jeopardizes the old paradigm as he placed institutional maintenance (i.e. senatorial filibuster) ahead of judicial conservatism. Now that social conservatives are so very close to having five jurists they believe to be orthodox on issues like school prayer and abortion, taking a chance on the "centrist" McCain and a Democratically controlled Senate is akin to Sherman turning around just as he sees Atlanta on the horizon. (Odd analogy, I know...)
2. This could be troubling times for the Republican Party. When original agreements breakdown, coalitions often disintegrate. The social right must feel it can not win politically absent a "new awakening". Now, their party is causing conservatives to doubt its commitment to a legal victory. When a party no longer provides the proper incentives for its members to continue its loyalty, you see either demobilization or defection. The latter is unlikely given that there is no where to go (unless a third conservative party movement occurs but those are usually quite short lived). But demobilization is notable as social conservatives were the driving force behind Bush's 2000 and 2004 electoral successes. Given that the Democratic Party is highly mobilized and you have the potential to have a demobilized wing of the Republican Party, the Dems could be on the verge of a major victory in November.
However, to prevent such a catastrophe, look for McCain to find religion on conservative judges and spend some time assuaging folks like James Dobson and Pat Robertson. But, as Hulse points out, this is a harder task for McCain than most Republican presidential nominees in the recent past.
1. If the article is correct, then the social right seems to have abandoned hope of achieving their objects through traditional political venues. I, and many others, have long argued that the social right's agenda has been "deferred" to the courts. The politics of the social right have been transformed into a politics of conservative jurisprudence, which leaves the economic wing free to focus the Republican Party's energy on its agenda--be it deregulation, terrorism, or tort reform. Under this paradigm, the social right has been marginalized but, seemingly, they have not realized the degree to which they've been marginalized (although the strength of Huckabee's campaign may speak to a growing consciousness). However, they may have been willing to play along so long as nominees to the Supreme Court looked more like Samuel Alito and less like Harriet Myers. McCain, already suspected by the social right of not being particularly orthodox, jeopardizes the old paradigm as he placed institutional maintenance (i.e. senatorial filibuster) ahead of judicial conservatism. Now that social conservatives are so very close to having five jurists they believe to be orthodox on issues like school prayer and abortion, taking a chance on the "centrist" McCain and a Democratically controlled Senate is akin to Sherman turning around just as he sees Atlanta on the horizon. (Odd analogy, I know...)
2. This could be troubling times for the Republican Party. When original agreements breakdown, coalitions often disintegrate. The social right must feel it can not win politically absent a "new awakening". Now, their party is causing conservatives to doubt its commitment to a legal victory. When a party no longer provides the proper incentives for its members to continue its loyalty, you see either demobilization or defection. The latter is unlikely given that there is no where to go (unless a third conservative party movement occurs but those are usually quite short lived). But demobilization is notable as social conservatives were the driving force behind Bush's 2000 and 2004 electoral successes. Given that the Democratic Party is highly mobilized and you have the potential to have a demobilized wing of the Republican Party, the Dems could be on the verge of a major victory in November.
However, to prevent such a catastrophe, look for McCain to find religion on conservative judges and spend some time assuaging folks like James Dobson and Pat Robertson. But, as Hulse points out, this is a harder task for McCain than most Republican presidential nominees in the recent past.
Francona Extended
Good news out of Fort Myers. The Sox and Terry Francona agreed to a contract extension of three years with an additional two years in team options. From time to time, I complain about Francona's in game management (particularly his bullpen usage) but I think most of these disagreements are on the margins. Admittedly, even when I disagree with Francona, I often wonder if he is operating on information that the public simply does have (like Papelbon having a migraine or Timlin having a sore shoulder). And, at the end of the day, it really doesn't matter if I disagree with Francona or not, he has led the Sox to three playoff appearances and two World Series championships in his four years with the Sox. It is hard to argue with such impressive results even with the Sox's payroll.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
The Big Dig in Pictures
The New York Times has a story-in-pictures on the completed Big Dig project in Boston. Like many other millions of people, I lived in Boston during a few years of the two decade long renovation process. The end results are worth a look.
Manny Switches Agents...Who Cares?
News out of Fort Myers is that Manny Ramirez switched agents to the much maligned (by the public) Scott Boras. Boras is arguably the best agent in baseball for players if we measure "best" as getting the biggest paycheck from MLB teams. The Sox have their share of Boras clients on the roster (Varitek, Drew, Cora, Ellsbury--although Ellsbury has not had the opportunity to negotiate a contract with Boras as his agent). No doubt this will cause some gnashing of teeth in Red Sox Nation but the development doesn't strike me as anything particularly problematic.
Boras doesn't seem to have as much leverage with Manny as he has had with other major players. Manny is reaching the autumn of the baseball years and, though quite productive, he isn't going to get a five year contract somewhere (unless a team loses its mind). Given that the Sox have a $20 million dollar option, they can essentially ask if they think they can negotiate the yearly output downward but be on the hook for longer. It makes some sense for both sides to agree to a $15-17 million deal over three years. The Sox will shave off three or four million dollars from the option and Manny will have the security of a large paycheck until he is 40.
Now, I have no idea whether either side is interested in such a scenario ($15 million may be low, especially if Manny has a good year) but the Sox are negotiating from a position of strength since they have an option at the end of the year. The one year option gets them a year closer to having power bats come through the system (Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrook, and/or, maybe, Jason Place although he has yet to catch fire in the minors). It also gets them one year closer to having a cheap rotation that will include Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson/Bowden, which enables the Sox to spend on established talent (e.g. Carl Crawford--although the Rays have an $8.5 million option, which I would think that even the cheap-ass Rays would exercise). The point is that the Sox are in a decent position to negotiate with Manny and Boras. If I'm a betting man, I'd say that, after a big year by Manny, the Sox exercise their option and have $20 million coming off the books for an impressive 2010 free agent market.
Boras doesn't seem to have as much leverage with Manny as he has had with other major players. Manny is reaching the autumn of the baseball years and, though quite productive, he isn't going to get a five year contract somewhere (unless a team loses its mind). Given that the Sox have a $20 million dollar option, they can essentially ask if they think they can negotiate the yearly output downward but be on the hook for longer. It makes some sense for both sides to agree to a $15-17 million deal over three years. The Sox will shave off three or four million dollars from the option and Manny will have the security of a large paycheck until he is 40.
Now, I have no idea whether either side is interested in such a scenario ($15 million may be low, especially if Manny has a good year) but the Sox are negotiating from a position of strength since they have an option at the end of the year. The one year option gets them a year closer to having power bats come through the system (Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrook, and/or, maybe, Jason Place although he has yet to catch fire in the minors). It also gets them one year closer to having a cheap rotation that will include Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson/Bowden, which enables the Sox to spend on established talent (e.g. Carl Crawford--although the Rays have an $8.5 million option, which I would think that even the cheap-ass Rays would exercise). The point is that the Sox are in a decent position to negotiate with Manny and Boras. If I'm a betting man, I'd say that, after a big year by Manny, the Sox exercise their option and have $20 million coming off the books for an impressive 2010 free agent market.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Spring Training Preview: The Bullpen
As noted before, the Red Sox have the roster largely set. However, the bullpen is somewhat up in the air. Schilling's injury may shuffle the bullpen further as, should one of the other five starters go down during spring training, Julian Tavarez may well start the season in the rotation. Since there are so many variables, I'm going to break this out into four sections: 12 pitchers; 11 pitchers; the Tavarez corollary; and the Lou Merloni-PawSox Shuttle.
12 Pitchers:
If the Red Sox start the season with seven relief pitchers, then there are five locks and two near locks. The locks are Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Timlin, and Tavarez. Snyder and Lopez are also likely sure things since it seems unlikely that the Sox would have bothered to sign them in the off-season if they weren't in the 2008 plan. (Yes, Sox fans, that means we get another year of a left-hand specialist who is lights out against righties but can't get lefties out. Nice LOOGY...) Those are the seven bullpen spots.
11 Pitchers:
If, for some reason, the Sox decided that they need a fifth outfielder (likely someone to spell Drew in right field), then they have a choice. Keep Snyder on the roster, who, in my opinion is more likely to be picked up off the waiver wire, or keep Lopez because you want another lefty on the staff (but, again, he doesn't get lefties out consistently enough to be a LOOGY). For the record, they make virtually identical salaries. I'd drop Snyder in favor of Lopez just because I think I can get him through waivers. I actually like Snyder more but I think the demand for a middle inning right hander is less than any lefty--even one that struggles against left hand hitters.
The Tavarez Corollary:
Should one of the starting five get hurt, Tavarez will likely start the season in the rotation. This opens up a slot that the Sox would likely fill with another pitcher. Spring training will likely prove who the next in line is but let me review the suspects. First, the Sox traded for David Aardsma in the off-season. Aardsma was a first round draft pick in 2004 out of Rice who didn't pan out the way the Giants (later the White Sox) hoped. (This is a trend with relief picthers out of Rice University. Sox fans will recall Bryce Cox's struggles in the minors last year.) Yet, Aardsma's stuff is quite good and the Red Sox obviously liked his potential. (Oh, and his sister is the former Miss Teen Colorado...so there's that.)
Second, the Sox invited Dan Kolb and Jon Switzer to training camp. Switzer is kind of a train wreck so he'd have to have one great spring training. Kolb is slightly more interesting as he has had a few good seasons in the past and he might be a solid option for getting right handed hitters out.
Third, Bryan Corey has performed fairly well in a Sox uniform and many Sox fans thought he should have made the post-season roster last year. He doesn't have dominating stuff so it is a harder case to make but his track record (and a strong spring training performance) could earn him an a slot. If you need the lefthanded version of Corey, Craig Breslow (who actually does get lefties out--at least in Pawtucket) is your man.
If I had to handicap this group, I'd go Corey 3:1, Aardsma 5:1, Kolb 8:1, Breslow 17:1; Switzer 28:1.
Lou Merloni-PawSox Shuttle:
The Sox have a few possibilities in AAA. Criag Hansen, who has yet to live up to the initial hype that surrounded him, was diagnosed with sleep SOMETHING and had surgery in the off season to correct it. Should this enable Hansen to rediscover the stuff that made him so highly touted out of college, he would be a candidate for promotion. Edgar Martinez struggled in AAA but, given that last year was only his third year pitching, we may see Martinez take another step forward and, if it is a big step, get a chance with the Sox.
On the whole the bullpen looks solid. But, to a large extent, this will depend on whether (1) Papelbon stays healthy; (2) Delcarmen continues to improve; and (3) Okajima doesn't regress greatly from last year.
12 Pitchers:
If the Red Sox start the season with seven relief pitchers, then there are five locks and two near locks. The locks are Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Timlin, and Tavarez. Snyder and Lopez are also likely sure things since it seems unlikely that the Sox would have bothered to sign them in the off-season if they weren't in the 2008 plan. (Yes, Sox fans, that means we get another year of a left-hand specialist who is lights out against righties but can't get lefties out. Nice LOOGY...) Those are the seven bullpen spots.
11 Pitchers:
If, for some reason, the Sox decided that they need a fifth outfielder (likely someone to spell Drew in right field), then they have a choice. Keep Snyder on the roster, who, in my opinion is more likely to be picked up off the waiver wire, or keep Lopez because you want another lefty on the staff (but, again, he doesn't get lefties out consistently enough to be a LOOGY). For the record, they make virtually identical salaries. I'd drop Snyder in favor of Lopez just because I think I can get him through waivers. I actually like Snyder more but I think the demand for a middle inning right hander is less than any lefty--even one that struggles against left hand hitters.
The Tavarez Corollary:
Should one of the starting five get hurt, Tavarez will likely start the season in the rotation. This opens up a slot that the Sox would likely fill with another pitcher. Spring training will likely prove who the next in line is but let me review the suspects. First, the Sox traded for David Aardsma in the off-season. Aardsma was a first round draft pick in 2004 out of Rice who didn't pan out the way the Giants (later the White Sox) hoped. (This is a trend with relief picthers out of Rice University. Sox fans will recall Bryce Cox's struggles in the minors last year.) Yet, Aardsma's stuff is quite good and the Red Sox obviously liked his potential. (Oh, and his sister is the former Miss Teen Colorado...so there's that.)
Second, the Sox invited Dan Kolb and Jon Switzer to training camp. Switzer is kind of a train wreck so he'd have to have one great spring training. Kolb is slightly more interesting as he has had a few good seasons in the past and he might be a solid option for getting right handed hitters out.
Third, Bryan Corey has performed fairly well in a Sox uniform and many Sox fans thought he should have made the post-season roster last year. He doesn't have dominating stuff so it is a harder case to make but his track record (and a strong spring training performance) could earn him an a slot. If you need the lefthanded version of Corey, Craig Breslow (who actually does get lefties out--at least in Pawtucket) is your man.
If I had to handicap this group, I'd go Corey 3:1, Aardsma 5:1, Kolb 8:1, Breslow 17:1; Switzer 28:1.
Lou Merloni-PawSox Shuttle:
The Sox have a few possibilities in AAA. Criag Hansen, who has yet to live up to the initial hype that surrounded him, was diagnosed with sleep SOMETHING and had surgery in the off season to correct it. Should this enable Hansen to rediscover the stuff that made him so highly touted out of college, he would be a candidate for promotion. Edgar Martinez struggled in AAA but, given that last year was only his third year pitching, we may see Martinez take another step forward and, if it is a big step, get a chance with the Sox.
On the whole the bullpen looks solid. But, to a large extent, this will depend on whether (1) Papelbon stays healthy; (2) Delcarmen continues to improve; and (3) Okajima doesn't regress greatly from last year.
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