Variance or Suckitude?

The Red Sox have managed to lose enough recently such that their lead in the AL East is now 2 1/2 games over the surging Yankees. All Red Sox fans are now remembering 1978 and every other collapse in the long history of Red Sox Nation. During times when the Nation stands on the precipice wondering whether to jump or not, it is worth trying to gain some perspective (perspective on baseball--none of that "it's just a game crap," anyone who says that doesn't understand the nature of identity). So, here's a thought:

Baseball is a game of percentages, variance, and distribution. Smart general managers can predict with high levels of confidence approximately how many wins their team will have at the end of the year. However, this tells general managers (and, more importantly for this post, fans) the nature of how those wins will be distributed throughout a season. If a team is likely to win 91-94 games (at, say, a 95% confidence interval) and manages to win 53 during the first half of the season, the second half is going to be a let down. At one point in the first half, the Sox were on pace to win 105 wins. On the flip side, the Yankees were on pace to win about 83. I knew both of these were absurd but, as a fan, I still wanted both to happen. Baseball is self correcting and, while painful to watch sometimes, tends to end up pretty much where you thought it would. Which is to say, that Sox fans shouldn't be surprised that they are running neck and neck with the Spanks at the end of the year.

Of course, none of this explains why Francona didn't have Papelbon up in the eighth inning given that Eric Gagne gives up runs like a pitcher in a t-ball game. But, that's why Sox fans have Sons of Sam Horn: To call for Francona's (proverbial, I hope) head on a platter.