Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Anyone else wonder if Clemensitis is contagious?
I understand that Hardin is waging a two-front battle: a public relations campaign and a legal dispute. But, perhaps Mr. Hardin has spent too much time around his client and developed Clemensitis (the inability of the mind to ground claims in reality and the belief that no one will notice). Adopting Clemensitis as a legal strategy will not going to do much for your client. It is time for Team Clemens to drop the hyperbole and begin to take seriously what is at stake. Clemens's reputation is already in the tank. His liberty may follow. Clemens should do himself a favor and hire someone who is less concerned with the public relations campaign and more about keeping their client out of jail.
Monday, February 25, 2008
Lies, Damn lies, Clemens, and Jail Time?
Sunday, February 24, 2008
McCain, the Social Right, and the Problem of Judges
1. If the article is correct, then the social right seems to have abandoned hope of achieving their objects through traditional political venues. I, and many others, have long argued that the social right's agenda has been "deferred" to the courts. The politics of the social right have been transformed into a politics of conservative jurisprudence, which leaves the economic wing free to focus the Republican Party's energy on its agenda--be it deregulation, terrorism, or tort reform. Under this paradigm, the social right has been marginalized but, seemingly, they have not realized the degree to which they've been marginalized (although the strength of Huckabee's campaign may speak to a growing consciousness). However, they may have been willing to play along so long as nominees to the Supreme Court looked more like Samuel Alito and less like Harriet Myers. McCain, already suspected by the social right of not being particularly orthodox, jeopardizes the old paradigm as he placed institutional maintenance (i.e. senatorial filibuster) ahead of judicial conservatism. Now that social conservatives are so very close to having five jurists they believe to be orthodox on issues like school prayer and abortion, taking a chance on the "centrist" McCain and a Democratically controlled Senate is akin to Sherman turning around just as he sees Atlanta on the horizon. (Odd analogy, I know...)
2. This could be troubling times for the Republican Party. When original agreements breakdown, coalitions often disintegrate. The social right must feel it can not win politically absent a "new awakening". Now, their party is causing conservatives to doubt its commitment to a legal victory. When a party no longer provides the proper incentives for its members to continue its loyalty, you see either demobilization or defection. The latter is unlikely given that there is no where to go (unless a third conservative party movement occurs but those are usually quite short lived). But demobilization is notable as social conservatives were the driving force behind Bush's 2000 and 2004 electoral successes. Given that the Democratic Party is highly mobilized and you have the potential to have a demobilized wing of the Republican Party, the Dems could be on the verge of a major victory in November.
However, to prevent such a catastrophe, look for McCain to find religion on conservative judges and spend some time assuaging folks like James Dobson and Pat Robertson. But, as Hulse points out, this is a harder task for McCain than most Republican presidential nominees in the recent past.
Francona Extended
Saturday, February 23, 2008
The Big Dig in Pictures
Manny Switches Agents...Who Cares?
Boras doesn't seem to have as much leverage with Manny as he has had with other major players. Manny is reaching the autumn of the baseball years and, though quite productive, he isn't going to get a five year contract somewhere (unless a team loses its mind). Given that the Sox have a $20 million dollar option, they can essentially ask if they think they can negotiate the yearly output downward but be on the hook for longer. It makes some sense for both sides to agree to a $15-17 million deal over three years. The Sox will shave off three or four million dollars from the option and Manny will have the security of a large paycheck until he is 40.
Now, I have no idea whether either side is interested in such a scenario ($15 million may be low, especially if Manny has a good year) but the Sox are negotiating from a position of strength since they have an option at the end of the year. The one year option gets them a year closer to having power bats come through the system (Lars Anderson, Will Middlebrook, and/or, maybe, Jason Place although he has yet to catch fire in the minors). It also gets them one year closer to having a cheap rotation that will include Lester, Buchholz, and Masterson/Bowden, which enables the Sox to spend on established talent (e.g. Carl Crawford--although the Rays have an $8.5 million option, which I would think that even the cheap-ass Rays would exercise). The point is that the Sox are in a decent position to negotiate with Manny and Boras. If I'm a betting man, I'd say that, after a big year by Manny, the Sox exercise their option and have $20 million coming off the books for an impressive 2010 free agent market.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Spring Training Preview: The Bullpen
12 Pitchers:
If the Red Sox start the season with seven relief pitchers, then there are five locks and two near locks. The locks are Papelbon, Delcarmen, Okajima, Timlin, and Tavarez. Snyder and Lopez are also likely sure things since it seems unlikely that the Sox would have bothered to sign them in the off-season if they weren't in the 2008 plan. (Yes, Sox fans, that means we get another year of a left-hand specialist who is lights out against righties but can't get lefties out. Nice LOOGY...) Those are the seven bullpen spots.
11 Pitchers:
If, for some reason, the Sox decided that they need a fifth outfielder (likely someone to spell Drew in right field), then they have a choice. Keep Snyder on the roster, who, in my opinion is more likely to be picked up off the waiver wire, or keep Lopez because you want another lefty on the staff (but, again, he doesn't get lefties out consistently enough to be a LOOGY). For the record, they make virtually identical salaries. I'd drop Snyder in favor of Lopez just because I think I can get him through waivers. I actually like Snyder more but I think the demand for a middle inning right hander is less than any lefty--even one that struggles against left hand hitters.
The Tavarez Corollary:
Should one of the starting five get hurt, Tavarez will likely start the season in the rotation. This opens up a slot that the Sox would likely fill with another pitcher. Spring training will likely prove who the next in line is but let me review the suspects. First, the Sox traded for David Aardsma in the off-season. Aardsma was a first round draft pick in 2004 out of Rice who didn't pan out the way the Giants (later the White Sox) hoped. (This is a trend with relief picthers out of Rice University. Sox fans will recall Bryce Cox's struggles in the minors last year.) Yet, Aardsma's stuff is quite good and the Red Sox obviously liked his potential. (Oh, and his sister is the former Miss Teen Colorado...so there's that.)
Second, the Sox invited Dan Kolb and Jon Switzer to training camp. Switzer is kind of a train wreck so he'd have to have one great spring training. Kolb is slightly more interesting as he has had a few good seasons in the past and he might be a solid option for getting right handed hitters out.
Third, Bryan Corey has performed fairly well in a Sox uniform and many Sox fans thought he should have made the post-season roster last year. He doesn't have dominating stuff so it is a harder case to make but his track record (and a strong spring training performance) could earn him an a slot. If you need the lefthanded version of Corey, Craig Breslow (who actually does get lefties out--at least in Pawtucket) is your man.
If I had to handicap this group, I'd go Corey 3:1, Aardsma 5:1, Kolb 8:1, Breslow 17:1; Switzer 28:1.
Lou Merloni-PawSox Shuttle:
The Sox have a few possibilities in AAA. Criag Hansen, who has yet to live up to the initial hype that surrounded him, was diagnosed with sleep SOMETHING and had surgery in the off season to correct it. Should this enable Hansen to rediscover the stuff that made him so highly touted out of college, he would be a candidate for promotion. Edgar Martinez struggled in AAA but, given that last year was only his third year pitching, we may see Martinez take another step forward and, if it is a big step, get a chance with the Sox.
On the whole the bullpen looks solid. But, to a large extent, this will depend on whether (1) Papelbon stays healthy; (2) Delcarmen continues to improve; and (3) Okajima doesn't regress greatly from last year.
Happy Pitchers and Catchers!!
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Lies, Damn Lies, and Clemens
Too many fine baseball writers have and will be penning columns about today's events in DC so I'll simply point to Tom Verducci's piece over at SI and Dan Shaughnessy's piece in The Globe. (Note to readers: I will almost never link to a CHB article--I think he is spreads far too much dissention by ignoring too much evidence or just failing to investigate--but I thought he did a decent job today so there it is.) However, since this is one of the rare moments when politics and baseball collide, I wanted to make two claims. First, the clear divide among the Committee members--pro-Clemens (who tended to be Republicans) and anti-Clemens (who tended to be Democrats)--might best be explained by understanding their baseline for judging guilt and innocence. Second, today's congressional hearing made courts look pretty good.
Quite clearly, most members of the House Committee made up their minds about whether Clemens is telling the truth or lying before the hearing. Those supporting Clemens attacked McNamee regularly and, at times, quite viciously. Those suspicious of Clemens attempt to impeach the numerous inconsistencies in his public and private statements. Oddly, the split in the committee was largely along party lines, which was bizarre in and of itself. However, it became clear that the pro-Clemens and anti-Clemens faction were using different baselines from which to judge Clemens. The pro-Clemens faction seemed to be relying on the character of Brian McNamee as the baseline for judgment. An evaluation of McNamee's character will find shady dealings, lies, criminal activity, etc. There is little in Clemens's past (besides the use of performance enhancing drugs...I mean alleged use of PEDs) that would cause one to hold Clemens in the same regard as McNamee (unless you are a Red Sox fan). So, if you are using character as the baseline, Clemens wins. Particularly useful here, note how little those sympathetic to Clemens raised Pettitte's damning statements. (And, by the way, one doesn't "misremember" when a friend tells them they used illegal drugs to gain an advantage in their shared profession. This is akin to subverting the rules that those in the profession are supposed to play by. If one of my friends and colleagues at UNLV came to me and informed me that they plagiarized an article that was recently accepted for publication at a top journal, I'm going to remember the event quite vividly.)
On the flip side, those skeptical of Clemens's stories seemed to use the totality of the evidence as the baseline of evaluation. McNamee alone wasn't enough. Nor was Pettitte. Nor was the medical testimony. Nor were lots of circumstantial evidence. But, if you do the math, the totality of the evidence casts a large, dark shadow of guilt over Clemens. If you read the transcripts, you see those hostile to Clemens are all over the map in their lines of attack. (If you want to read the most sophisticated, interesting, and thoughtful line of questioning, read Representative Elijah Cumming's questions--both rounds. Truly insightful.) The disjunction in the lines of inquiry makes sense if they were concerned with multiple data points as the best way to come to a conclusion.
Finally, as a scholar of law and courts, I couldn't help thinking that the congressional hearings made courts look good. Most members of the committee had come to a conclusion before the hearing. (The fact that Clemens met with 19 committee members before the hearing likely explains this predisposition and raises ethical questions.) Several of the committee members asked irrelevant and/or ill-informed questions. They seemed more concerned with protecting specific interests than with realizing the truth or, perhaps more importantly, using the hearings as a means of crafting future policy. I complain regularly about the shortcomings of adjudicative institutions but, today, I found myself feeling better about judicial competency, if only in comparison.
Monday, February 11, 2008
Capital Area Primaries (with a splash of Sox)
On the Republican state, I think it will be very interesting to watch Virginia. Southern Virginia might as well be included in the Bible Belt and should favor Huckabee. However, Virginia is a good military state (think the Hampton Roads cities--Norfolk, Newport News, Hampton, etc., etc.) and they may pull heavily for McCain. The balance may rest in Northern Virginia, which is the most moderate part of the state, and the Independents that reside therein. (Virginia has an open primary system.) I think McCain likely takes Virginia (and I'd be stunned if he doesn't take Maryland and DC) but it will be an interesting race to watch.
As to the Sox...In Tuesday's Globe, Eric Wilbur had a nice synopsis of the difference between the Sox teams entering 2005 and 2008 and how this is a general sign of health. Wilbur notes that the Sox will likely have an opening day roster where "a little less than a third of the roster will be homegrown talent." I count 28% (including Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, and Delcarmen). If you think Moss will make the opening day roster then it would make 32% but I don't think there is much chance of that unless Crisp gets traded since there aren't enough roster slots to carry five outfielders unless you carry only 11 pitchers.
Friday, February 8, 2008
Happy Truck Day!! (More on Schilling)
I have nothing to offer in the way of analysis since I’m not a medical doctor, but this story is sufficiently bizarre that I find it troubling. Schilling’s doctor spoke directly to the Boston Globe, there seem to be leaks coming from the front office, and the story pits Schilling against the management. The story is sufficiently distasteful that it reminds me of the kind of stories in 2005 that concluded with Theo Epstein in a gorilla suit and an extended vacation. John Henry and Theo put the kibosh on the old front office culture but, when these stories break in this way, they echo back to a chapter that is best left closed.
Thursday, February 7, 2008
Shoulder Shelves Schilling
So, in The World According to Theo, the Sox need more pitching. The question becomes who is available for what the Sox are willing to part with. Obviously, Crisp is on the table as is Jed Lowrie who is blocked in the infield and unlikely to see much time unless Julio Lugo is totally unproductive. The Sox could also part with either Masterson or Michael Bowden although such talent would have to net significant return talent. Nick Hagadone is an intriguing chip given that the Sox have much less invested in him and his outstanding performance in low-A last year. So, what would a Crisp, Lowrie, and Masterson/Bowden/Hagadone trade net the Sox?
Joe Blanton(?)
Blanton is intriguing for several reasons. The Sox would get a power righty that could easily fill the number 3 or 4 position left open by Schilling. Blanton is also a fairly reasonable pitcher at roughly $18 million over the next three years (give or take depending on arbitration). And, the A's have let it be known that Blanton is available for the right offer? Is this the right offer? I'm not sure. Personally, I think the inclusion of Bowden or Masterson is probably too much and, quite likely, the Sox would have to pick up some of Crisp's salary. But, the A's need a quality center fielder on the cheap. They also need a middle infielder that can back up the oft injured Bobby Crosby and fill in at second to spell Mark Ellis. Crisp and Lowrie fit the bill quite well. And, the inclusion of a quality minor league arm helps the A's in their rebuilding effort. On the whole, it looks like the deal would be possible but, of course, this is just speculation. But I rather like the deal for both teams.
Wednesday, February 6, 2008
Roger's Rules of Evidence
The decision to produce the materials in the first place is likely a reflection of the value society places on physical evidence. It is considered neutral, disinterested, scientific, and, often, definitive. Yet, physical evidence can only tell part of the story and, in this case, the part of the story to be told (that Clemens used PEDs) doesn't seem particularly aided its production. I may be jumping the gun here since I don't know the full nature of the materials produced. But, I find the development a bit troubling as it sets up an easy target for Team Clemens to knock down and, in so doing, casting doubt on some of McNamee's stronger claims. In so doing, Clemens may be aided by McNamee's production of "corroborative physical evidence" rather than further indicted.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Tuesday: Yes We Can
Oh, and...Yes we can.
Sox Spring Training Preview: The Rotation
Ah, pitchers and catchers...It is one of the best times of the year. Hope springs eternal as leather and wood is flashed under the Florida and Arizona skies. For many teams, there is less discussion of who will make the team out of spring training but there is often a few slots up for grab that lead to extended discussions in bars and bodegas across the country (or, at least, in those parts of the country where baseball is king). To that end, I thought I'd start a series of rather uninsightful pieces that highlight the roster battles on the Red Sox. There are only three that are up in the air (and the uncertainty is much less with the Sox than most teams): Starting Rotation (Lester v. Buchholz), Bullpen (carrying 6 or 7 relievers and who those people should be), and Bench (there is only a personnel debate if the Sox carry 5 on the bench because of carry 11 pitchers).
Let's start with the rotation: Spring training performance could determine whether it is Lester or Buchholz who starts the season in the rotation. Going in to spring training, Lester has to be the favorite. Rumors coming out of the Santana trade stated that the Sox increasingly did not wish to part with Lester and, given his experience in the rotation last year, he will likely get the nod. The biggest knock on Lester is his inconsistency. His K/BB ratio was 1.61 last year and not pounding the zone tends to limit the number of innings Lester can complete. No one doubts his stuff and, if he shows greater consistency, he'll be a lock for the rotation.
However, should Lester start in the majors, it can be argued the second best arm on the Sox will start in Pawtucket. Baseball Prospectus recently rated Clay Buchholz the second best prospect in all of baseball and his no-hitter last season spoke to how good his stuff is. Buchholz has also added some meat to his frame in preparation of being in the rotation all season. The Sox may want to start him in the minors to limit his innings so that he will be relatively fresh for the second half of the season. And, given that the Sox have two 40+ year old starters, there is certainly a possibility that injury could bring Buchholz to the rotation earlier than July.
Likely Rotation on Opening Day: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Wakefield, and Lester.